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?GMIC 北京 2017 霍金演講完整視頻。來源：長城會

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Over my lifetime, I have seen very significant societal changes. Probably one of the most significant, and one that is increasingly concerning people today, is the rise of artificial intelligence. In short, I believe that the rise of powerful AI, will be either the best thing, or the worst, ever to happen to humanity. I have to say now, that we do not yet know which. But we should do all we can, to ensure that its future development benefits us, and our environment. We have no other option. I see the development of AI, as a trend with its own problems that we know must be dealt with, now and into the future.

在我的一生中，我見證過深刻的社會變化。其中最深刻的，同時也是對人類影響與日俱增的變化，是人工智能的崛起。簡單來說，我認為強大的人工智能的崛起，要么是人類歷史上最好的事，要么是最糟的。是好是壞，我不得不說，我們依然不能確定。但我們應(yīng)該竭盡所能，確保其未來發(fā)展對我們和我們的環(huán)境有利。我們別無選擇。我認為人工智能的發(fā)展，本身是一種存在著問題的趨勢，而這些問題必須在現(xiàn)在和將來得到解決。

The progress in AI research and development is swift. And perhaps we should all stop for a moment, and focus our research, not only on making AI more capable, but on maximizing its societal benefit. Such considerations motivated the American Association for Artificial Intelligence's, two thousand and eight to two thousand and nine, Presidential Panel on Long-Term AI Futures, which up to recently had focused largely on techniques, that are neutral with respect to purpose. But our AI systems must do what we want them to do. Inter-disciplinary research can be a way forward: ranging from economics, law, and philosophy, to computer security, formal methods, and of course various branches of AI itself.

人工智能的研究與開發(fā)正在迅速推進。也許科學研究應(yīng)該暫停片刻，使研究重點從提升人工智能能力轉(zhuǎn)移到最大化人工智能的社會效益上面。基于這樣的考慮，美國人工智能協(xié)會（AAAI）于2008至2009年，成立了人工智能長期未來總籌論壇（原文：Presidential Panel on Long-Term AI Futures），他們近期在中立于目的的中性技術(shù)上投入了大量的關(guān)注。但我們的人工智能系統(tǒng)的原則依然需要按照我們的意志工作。跨學科研究可能是一條可能的前進道路：從經(jīng)濟、法律、哲學延伸至計算機安全、形式化方法，當然還有人工智能本身的各個分支。

Everything that civilization has to offer, is a product of human intelligence, and I believe there is no real difference between what can be achieved by a biological brain, and what can be achieved by a computer. It therefore follows that computers can, in theory, emulate human intelligence, and exceed it. But we don’t know. So we can not know if we will be infinitely helped by AI, or ignored by it and side-lined, or conceivably destroyed by it. Indeed, we have concerns that clever machines will be capable of undertaking work currently done by humans, and swiftly destroy millions of jobs.

文明所產(chǎn)生的一切都是人類智慧的產(chǎn)物，我相信生物大腦能取得的成就，與計算機可以達到的成就，沒有本質(zhì)區(qū)別。因此，它遵循了“計算機在理論上可以模仿人類智慧，然后超越”這一原則。但我們并不確定，所以我們無法知道我們將無限地得到人工智能的幫助，還是被藐視并被邊緣化，或者很可能被它毀滅。的確，我們擔心聰明的機器將能夠代替人類正在從事的工作，并迅速地消滅數(shù)以百萬計的工作崗位。

While primitive forms of artificial intelligence developed so far, have proved very useful, I fear the consequences of creating something that can match or surpass humans. AI would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate. Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded. It will bring great disruption to our economy. And in the future, AI could develop a will of its own, a will that is in conflict with ours. Although I am well-known as an optimist regarding the human race, others believe that humans can command the rate of technology for a decently long time, and that the potential of AI to solve many of the world's problems will be realized. I am not so sure.

在人工智能從原始形態(tài)不斷發(fā)展，并被證明非常有用的同時，我也在擔憂這樣的結(jié)果，即創(chuàng)造出可以等同或超越人類的事物：人工智能一旦脫離束縛，以不斷加速的狀態(tài)重新設(shè)計自身。人類由于受到漫長的生物進化的限制，無法與之競爭，將被取代。這將給我們的經(jīng)濟帶來極大的破壞。未來，人工智能可能會發(fā)展出自我意志，一個與我們沖突的意志。很多人認為人類可以在相當長的時間里控制技術(shù)的發(fā)展，這樣我們就能看到人工智能解決世界上大部分問題的潛力成為現(xiàn)實。但我并不確定。盡管我對人類一貫持有樂觀的態(tài)度。

In January 2015, I along with the technological entrepreneur, Elon Musk, and many other AI experts, signed an open letter on artificial intelligence, calling for serious research on its impact on society. In the past, Elon Musk has warned that super human artificial intelligence, is possible of providing in calculable benefits, but if deployed in cautiously, will have an adverse effect on the human race. He and I, sit on the scientific advisory board for the Future of Life Institute, an organization working to mitigate existential risks facing humanity, and which drafted the open letter. This called for concrete research on how we could prevent potential problems, while also reaping the potential benefits AI offers us, and is designed to get AI researchers and developers to pay more attention to AI safety. In addition, for policymakers and the general public, the letter is meant to be informative, but not alarmist. We think it is very important, that everybody knows that AI researchers are seriously thinking about these concerns and ethical issues. For example, AI has the potential to eradicate disease and poverty, but researchers must work to create AI that can be controlled. The four-paragraph letter, titled Research Priorities for Robustand Beneficial Artificial Intelligence, an Open Letter, lays out detailed research priorities in the accompanying twelve-page document.

2015年1月份，我和科技企業(yè)家埃隆·馬斯克，以及許多其他的人工智能專家簽署了一份關(guān)于人工智能的公開信，目的是提倡就人工智能對社會所造成的影響做認真的調(diào)研。在這之前，埃隆·馬斯克就警告過人們：超人類人工智能可能帶來不可估量的利益，但是如果部署不當，則可能給人類帶來相反的效果。我和他同在“生命未來研究所”擔任科學顧問委員會的職務(wù)，這是一個旨在緩解人類所面臨的存在風險的組織，而且之前提到的公開信也是由這個組織起草的。在收獲人工智能帶給我們的潛在利益的同時，這封公開信號召我們也要展開能阻止?jié)撛趩栴}的直接研究，并致力于讓研發(fā)人員更加關(guān)注人工智能的安全問題。此外，對于決策者和普通大眾來說，這封公開信內(nèi)容翔實，并非危言聳聽。人人都知道人工智能研究人員們在認真思索這些擔心和倫理問題，我們認為這一點非常重要。比如，人工智能具有根除疾患和貧困的潛力，但是研究人員必須能夠創(chuàng)造出可控的人工智能。那封公開信只有四段文字，題目為《應(yīng)優(yōu)先研究強大而有益的人工智能》，在其附帶的十二頁文件中對研究的優(yōu)先次序作了詳細的安排。

For the last 20 years or so, AI has been focused on the problems surrounding the construction of intelligent agents, systems that perceive and act in some environment. In this context, intelligence is related to statistical and economic notions of rationality. Colloquially, the ability to make good decisions, plans, or inferences. As a result of this recent work, there has been a large degree of integration and cross-fertilisation among AI, machine learning, statistics, control theory, neuro science, and other fields. The establishment of shared theoretical frameworks, combined with the availability of data and processing power, has yielded remarkable successes invarious component tasks, such as speech recognition, image classification, autonomous vehicles, machine translation, legged locomotion, and question-answering systems.

在過去的20年或更長時間里，人工智能領(lǐng)域一直專注于建設(shè)智能代理相關(guān)的問題，即在特定環(huán)境下可以感知并行動的各種系統(tǒng)。在這種情況下，智能是一個與統(tǒng)計學和經(jīng)濟學相關(guān)的理性概念。通俗地講，這是一種做出好的決定、計劃和推論的能力?；谶@些工作，大量的整合和交融被應(yīng)用在人工智能、機器學習、統(tǒng)計學、控制論、神經(jīng)科學以及其它領(lǐng)域。共享理論框架的建立，結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)的供應(yīng)和處理能力，在各種細分的領(lǐng)域取得了顯著的成功。例如語音識別、圖像分類、自動駕駛、機器翻譯、步態(tài)運動和問答系統(tǒng)。

As development in these areas and others, moves from laboratory research to economically valuable technologies, a virtuous cycle evolves, whereby even small improvements in performance, are worth large sums of money, prompting further and greater investments in research. There is now a broad consensus that AI research is progressing steadily, and that its impact on society is likely to increase. The potential benefits are huge, since everything that civilization has to offer, is a product of human intelligence; we can not predict what we might achieve, when this intelligence is magnified by the tools AI may provide. But, and as I have said, the eradication of diseaseand poverty is not unfathomable. Because of the great potential of AI, it is important to research how to reap its benefits, while avoiding potential pitfalls.

隨著這些領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展，從實驗室研究到有經(jīng)濟價值的技術(shù)之間的流動，已形成良性循環(huán)。哪怕很小的性能改進，都會帶來巨大的經(jīng)濟效益，進而鼓勵更長期、更大的投入和研究。目前人們廣泛認同，人工智能的研究正在穩(wěn)步發(fā)展，而它對社會的影響很可能擴大，潛在的好處是巨大的——畢竟文明能提供的一切，都是人類智力的產(chǎn)物；但當這種智力被人工智能提供的工具放大過后，我們無法預測我們獲得的結(jié)果。但是，正如我說過的，根除疾病和貧窮并不是完全不可能，由于人工智能的巨大潛力，研究如何（從人工智能）獲益并規(guī)避風險是非常重要的。

Artificial intelligence research is now progressing rapidly. And this research can be discussed as short-term and long-term. Some short-term concerns relate to autonomous vehicles, from civilian drones and self-driving cars. For example, a self-driving car may, in an emergency, have to decide between a small risk of a major accident, and a large probability of a small accident. Other concerns relate to lethal intelligent autonomous weapons. Should they be banned. If so, how should autonomy be precisely defined. If not, how should culpability for any misuse or malfunction be apportioned. Other issues include privacy concerns, as AI becomes increasingly able to interpret large surveillance datasets, and how to best manage the economic impact of jobs displaced by AI.

現(xiàn)在，關(guān)于人工智能的研究正在迅速發(fā)展。這一研究可以從短期和長期兩個角度來討論。一些短期的擔憂，與無人駕駛相關(guān)，從民用無人機到自主駕駛汽車。比如說，在緊急情況下，一輛無人駕駛汽車不得不在大事故的小風險和小事故的大概率之間進行選擇。另一個擔憂是致命性智能自主武器。他們是否該被禁止？如果是，那么“自主”該如何精確定義。如果不是，任何使用不當和故障的過失應(yīng)該如何問責。還有另外一些擔憂：由人工智能逐漸可以解讀大量監(jiān)控數(shù)據(jù)引起的隱私和擔憂，以及如何管理因人工智能取代工作崗位帶來的經(jīng)濟影響。

Long-term concerns, comprise primarily of the potential loss of control of AI systems, via the rise of super-intelligences that do not act in accordance with human wishes, and that such powerful systems would threaten humanity. Are such days topic outcomes possible. If so, how might these situations arise. What kind of investments in research should be made, to better understand and to address the possibility of the rise of a dangerous super-intelligence, or the occurrence of an intelligence explosion.

長期擔憂主要是人工智能系統(tǒng)失控的潛在風險——由于不遵循人類意愿行事的超級智能的崛起，這樣強大的系統(tǒng)將威脅到人類。如今這樣的話題是否會成為現(xiàn)實？如果是，這些情況是如何出現(xiàn)的？我們應(yīng)該投入什么樣的研究，以便更好理解和解決危險的超級智能崛起的可能性，或智能爆發(fā)的出現(xiàn)？

Existing tools for harnessing AI, such as reinforcement learning, and simple utility functions, are inadequate to solve this. Therefore more research is necessary to find and validate a robust solution to the control problem.

當前控制人工智能技術(shù)的工具，例如強化學習、簡單的效用函數(shù)，還不足以解決這個問題。因此，我們需要進一步研究來找到和確認一個可靠的解決辦法來解決掌控這一問題。

Recent land marks, such as the self-driving cars already mentioned, or a computer winning at the game of Go, are signs of what is to come.  Enormous levels of investment are pouring in to this technology.  The achievements we have seen so far, will surely pale against what the coming decades will bring, and we can not predict what we might achieve, when our own minds are amplified by AI.  Perhaps with the tools of this new technological revolution, we will be able to undo some of the damaged one to the natural world by the last one, industrialisation. Every aspect of our lyves will be transformed. In short, success in creating AI, could be the biggest event in the history of our civiliztion.

近來的里程碑，比如說之前提到的自主駕駛汽車，以及人工智能贏得圍棋比賽，都是未來趨勢的跡象。巨大的投入正傾入這項科技。我們目前所取得的成就，和未來幾十年后可能取得的成就相比，必然相形見絀。當我們的想法被人工智能放大以后，我們無法預測我們將取得怎樣的結(jié)果。也許在這種新技術(shù)革命的輔助下，我們可以解決一些工業(yè)化對自然界造成的損害。關(guān)乎到我們生活的各個方面都即將被改變。簡而言之，人工智能的成功有可能是人類文明史上最大的事件。

But it could also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks.  I have said in the past that the development of full AI, could spell the end of the human race, such as the ultimate use of powerful autonomous weapons. Earlier this year, I, along with other international scientists, supported the United Nations convention to negotiate a ban on nuclear weapons.  These negotiations started last week, and we await the outcome with nervous santicipation. Currently, nine nuclear powers have access to roughly 14,000 nuclear weapons, any one of which can obliterate cities, contaminate wide swathes of land with radio active fall-out, and the most horrible hazard of all, cause a nuclear-induced winter, in which the fires and smoke might trigger a global mini-ice age. The result is a complete collapse of the global food system, and apocalyptic unrest, potentially killing most people on earth. We scientists bear a special responsibility for nuclear weapons, since it was scientists who invented them, and discovered that their effects are even more horrific than first thought.

但是人工智能也有可能是人類文明史的終結(jié)，除非我們學會如何避免危險。我曾經(jīng)說過，人工智能的全方位發(fā)展可能招致人類的滅亡，比如最大化使用智能性自主武器。今年早些時候，我和一些來自世界各國的科學家共同在聯(lián)合國會議上支持其對于核武器的禁令。我們正在焦急地等待協(xié)商結(jié)果。目前，九個核大國可以控制大約一萬四千個核武器，它們中的任何一個都可以將城市夷為平地，放射性廢物會大面積污染農(nóng)田，最可怕的危害是誘發(fā)核冬天，火和煙霧會導致全球的小冰河期。這一結(jié)果將是全球糧食體系崩塌、末日般的動蕩，很可能導致大部分人死亡。我們作為科學家，對核武器承擔著特殊的責任，因為正是科學家發(fā)明了它們，并發(fā)現(xiàn)它們的影響比最初預想的更加可怕。

At this stage, I may have possibly frightened you all here today, with talk of doom. I apologize. But it is important that you, as attendees to today's conference, recognize the position you hold in influencing future research and development of today's technology. I believe that we join together, to call for support of international treaties, or signing letters presented to individual government all powers. Technology leaders and scientists are doing what they can, to obviate the rise of uncontrollable AI.

現(xiàn)階段，我對災難的探討可能驚嚇到了在座的各位。很抱歉。但是作為今天的與會者，重要的是，你們要認清自己在影響當前技術(shù)的未來研發(fā)中的位置。我相信我們團結(jié)在一起，來呼吁國際條約的支持或者簽署呈交給各國政府的公開信，科技領(lǐng)袖和科學家正極盡所能避免不可控人工智能的崛起。

In October last year, I opened a new center in Cambridge, England, which will attempt to tackle some of the open-ended questions raised by the rapid pace of development in AI research. The Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence, is a multi-disciplinary institute, dedicated to researching the future of intelligence, as crucial to the future of our civilisation and our species. We spend a great deal of time studying history, which let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity. So it's a welcome change, that people are studying instead the future of intelligence. We are aware of the potential dangers, but I am at heart an optimist, and believe that the potential benefits of creating intelligence are huge. Perhaps with the tools of this new technological revolution, we will be able to undo some of the damage done to the natural world, by industrialisation.

去年10月，我在英國劍橋建立了一個新的機構(gòu)，試圖解決一些在人工智能研究快速發(fā)展中出現(xiàn)的尚無定論的問題?！袄バ菽分悄芪磥碇行摹笔且粋€跨學科研究所，致力于研究智能的未來，這對我們文明和物種的未來至關(guān)重要。我們花費大量時間學習歷史，深入去看——大多數(shù)是關(guān)于愚蠢的歷史。所以人們轉(zhuǎn)而研究智能的未來是令人欣喜的變化。雖然我們對潛在危險有所意識，但我內(nèi)心仍秉持樂觀態(tài)度，我相信創(chuàng)造智能的潛在收益是巨大的。也許借助這項新技術(shù)革命的工具，我們將可以削減工業(yè)化對自然界造成的傷害。

Every aspect of our lives will be transformed. My colleague at the institute, HuwPrice, has acknowledged that the center came about partially as a result of the university’s Centre for Existential Risk. That institute examines a wider range of potential problems for humanity, while the Leverhulme Centrehas a more narrow focus.

我們生活的每一個方面都會被改變。我在研究所的同事休·普林斯承認，“利弗休姆中心”能建立，部分是因為大學成立了“存在風險中心”。后者更加廣泛地審視了人類潛在問題，“利弗休姆中心”的重點研究范圍則相對狹窄。

Recent developments in the advancement of AI, include a call by the European Parliament for drafting a set of regulations, to govern the use and creation of robots and AI. Somewhat surprisingly, this includes a form of electronic personhood, to ensure the rights and responsibilities for the most capable and advanced AI. A European Parliament spokesman has commented, that as a growing number of are as in our daily lyves are increasingly affected by robots, we need to ensure that robots are, and will remain, in the service of humans. There port as presented to MEPs, makes it clear that it believes the world is on the cusp of a new industrial robot revolution. It examines whether or not providing legal rights for robots as electronic persons, on a par with the legal definition of corporate personhood, would be permissible. But stresses that at all times, researchers and designers should ensure all robotic design incorporates a kill switch. This didn't help the scientists on board the spaceship with Hal, the malfunctioning robotic computer in Kubrick’s two thousand and one, a Space Odyssey, but that was fiction. We deal with fact. Lorna Brazell, a partner at the multinational law firm Osborne Clarke, says in the report, that we don’t give whales and gorillas personhood, so there is no need to jump at robotic personhood. But the wariness is there. The report acknowledges the possibility that within the space of a few decades, AI could surpass human intellectual capacity, and challenge the human robot relationship. Finally, the report calls for the creation of a European agency for robotic sand AI, that can provide technical, ethical, and regulatory expertise. If MEP svote in favor of legislation, the report will go to the European Commission, which has three months to decide what legislative steps it will take.

人工智能的最新進展，包括歐洲議會呼吁起草一系列法規(guī)，以管理機器人和人工智能的創(chuàng)新。令人感到些許驚訝的是，這里面涉及到了一種形式的電子人格，以確保最有能力和最先進的人工智能的權(quán)利和責任。歐洲議會發(fā)言人評論說，隨著日常生活中越來越多的領(lǐng)域日益受到機器人的影響，我們需要確保機器人無論現(xiàn)在還是將來，都為人類而服務(wù)。向歐洲議會議員提交的報告，明確認為世界正處于新的工業(yè)機器人革命的前沿。報告中分析的是給機器人提供作為電子人的權(quán)利，這等同于公司法人（的身份），是否有可能。報告強調(diào)，在任何時候，研究和設(shè)計人員都應(yīng)確保每一個機器人設(shè)計都包含有終止開關(guān)。在庫布里克的電影《2001太空漫游》中，出故障的超級電腦哈爾沒有讓科學家們進入太空艙，但那是科幻。我們要面對的則是事實。奧斯本·克拉克跨國律師事務(wù)所的合伙人，洛納·布拉澤爾在報告中說，我們不承認鯨魚和大猩猩有人格，所以也沒有必要急于接受一個機器人人格。但是擔憂一直存在。報告承認在幾十年的時間內(nèi)，人工智能可能會超越人類智力范圍，人工智能可能會超越人類智力范圍，進而挑戰(zhàn)人機關(guān)系。報告最后呼吁成立歐洲機器人和人工智能機構(gòu)，以提供技術(shù)、倫理和監(jiān)管方面的專業(yè)知識。如果歐洲議會議員投票贊成立法，該報告將提交給歐盟委員會。它將在三個月的時間內(nèi)決定要采取哪些立法步驟。

We too, have a role to play in making sure the next generation has not just the opportunity, but the determination, to engage fully with the study of science at an early level, so that they can go on to fulfil their potential, and create a better world for the whole human race. This is what I meant, when I was talking to you just now about the importance of learning and education.We need to take this beyond a theoretical discussion of how things should be, and take action, to make sure they have the opportunity to get on board. We stand on the threshold of a brave new world. It is an exciting, if precarious place to be, and you are the pioneers. I wish you well.

我們還應(yīng)該扮演一個角色，確保下一代不僅僅有機會還要有決心，在早期階段充分參與科學研究，以便他們繼續(xù)發(fā)揮潛力，幫助人類創(chuàng)造一個更加美好的的世界。這就是我剛談到學習和教育的重要性時，所要表達的意思。我們需要跳出“事情應(yīng)該如何”這樣的理論探討，并且采取行動，以確保他們有機會參與進來。我們站在一個美麗新世界的入口。這是一個令人興奮的、同時充滿了不確定性的世界，而你們是先行者。我祝福你們。

Thank you for listening.

謝謝。

Professor Hawking, we have learned so much from your insight.

Next I’m going to ask some questions. These are from Chinese scientists and entrepreneurs.

霍金教授，我們從您的洞見中學到了很多。

接下來我將要問一些問題，來自于中國的科學家和企業(yè)家。

本文原載微信公眾號《長城會》，《知識分子》獲授權(quán)刊載。